Context

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, is located in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of Ethiopia on the Blue Nile, 40 km east of the Sudan-Ethiopia border. The Ethiopian Electric Power Company owns the hydropower project, and it is expected to generate approximately 6000 MW of electricity to reduce the energy poverty in Ethiopia and Africa.

Why is the GERD a controversy?

United Nations
UN Photo/Manuel Elías

The GERD has been at the centre of negotiations between three riparians in the Nile Basin (Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan) in the last decade. There have been continuous negotiations focusing on dam construction and operation, sometimes facilitated by third parties. However, the negotiation turned into a dispute and further escalated after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERD reservoir, against the Egyptian position to not fill the GERD without a legally binding agreement. The countries have tried various mediation processes to resolve conflicts over GERD. The dispute over the dam's existence, construction, and operation has been treated as a regional and an international issue. Egypt saw the GERD as an international issue, appealing to the UN Security Council, whilst Ethiopia wished to resolve the dispute regionally. Initially, Sudan attempted to moderate the divergences between Ethiopia and Egypt; however, its positioning changed with time.

We use controversy mapping to chart the development of the discussions around the GERD while explaining different aspects of conflicts and cooperation, actors involved, and issues raised by the three riparians in the last two years.

A GERD timeline

The timeline below shows the significant events in the Nile River Basin that have shaped controversies in the GERD negotiations.

Infrastructure
Negociation
UNSC
Other
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Ceremony commencing the construction of the GERD
Prime Ministers of Egypt and Ethiopia meet to discuss the Nile water crisis
The International Panel of Experts (IPoE) on the GERD project is established
Round of technical meetings of the International Panel of Experts (IPoE) to review design documents of the GERD and discuss dam safety and engineering, water resources and hydrology, and environment and socio-economics
Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi dies
Prime Minister of Ethiopia Hailemariam Desalegn is sworn in
Diversion of the Blue Nile for the construction of the GERD starts
The International Panel of Experts (IPoE) releases its report on the GERD
Ethiopian Parliament ratifies the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)
Foreign Affairs Ministers of Egypt and Ethiopia meet to discuss the implementation of the International Panel of Experts (IPoE) recommendations
Round of trilateral negotiation meetings between Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan to discuss the joint mechanism for implementing the recommendations of the International Panel of Experts (IPoE)
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is sworn in
President of Egypt and Prime Minister of Ethiopia sign the Malabo Joint Statement
The Tripartite National Committee (TNC) is established
Round of meetings of the Tripartite National Committee (TNC) to agree on the studies recommended by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE)
Agreement on Declaration of Principles (DoP) on the GERD is signed
Round of meeetings of the Tripartite National Committee (TNC) to establish a roadmap for the studies recommended by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE)
Ethiopia announces halway completion of the GERD construction
World Bank officials meet with Water Resources Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan to discuss the GERD
Water Affairs Ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan meet to sign the consultancy contracts for the studies recommended by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE)
Mass protests in Ethiopia
Round of meetings of the Tripartite National Committee (TNC) to discuss the initial report by the consultancy firms and agree on the methods for the studies recommended by the International Panel of Experts (IPoE)
Ethiopia communicates the GERD reservoir filling plans with Egypt and Sudan
Tripartite summit between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreeing to establish the Nine-Party Mechanism
Prime Minister of Ethiopia Hailemariam Desalegn resigns
Prime Minister of Ethiopoa Abiy Ahmed is sworn in
Round of meetings of the Nine-Party Mechanism to discuss outstanding issues regarding the GERD and resolve the impasse in the negotiations
The National Independent Scientific Research Group (NISRG) is established
Round of meetings of the National Independent Scientific Research Group (NISRG) to agree on the principles to govern the filling and operation of the GERD
Mass protests in Sudan
Prime Minister of Sudan Omar Al-Bashir is deposed
Foreign Affairs Ministers of Egypt and Ethiopia met and agree on the need to resume negotiations
Prime Minister of Sudan Abdalla Hamdok is sworn in
Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan meet to discuss the GERD reservoir filling plans
Presidents of Egypt and Ethiopia address to the UN General Assembly 74th session and mention the GERD in their addresses
Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet to discuss the involvement of a third-party in the GERD negotiations
Foreign Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet with the US Secretary of the Treasury and the World Bank
Round of trilateral meetings between Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, with the World Bank and US as observors
Foreign Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet with the US Secretary of the Treasury and the World Bank
Foreign and Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet with the US Secretary of the Treasury and the World Bank
Foreign and Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet with the US Secretary of the Treasury and the World Bank
Foreign and Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet with the US Secretary of the Treasury and the World Bank
US Treasury Secretary meets bilaterally with Foreign and Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt and Sudan
Agreement on Guidelines and Rules for the Filling and Operation of the GERD proposed by the US
Arab League Council issues a resolution concerning the GERD
Round of tripartite meetings between Water Affairs Ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan to discuss the rules on the filling and operation of the GERD
Egypt submits a letter appealing to the UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2020/355)
Ethiopia submits a letter appealing to the UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2020/409)
UN Secretary-General releases a statement on the GERD
Round of bilateral technical discussions led by Water Affairs Minister of Sudan with his Egyptian and Ethiopian counterparts to discuss the resumption of negotiations
Sudan submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2020/480)
Round of trilateral negotiation meetings between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the filling and operation of the GERD
Egypt submits a letter appealing to the UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2020/566)
Ethiopia submits a letter appealing to the UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2020/567)
UN Security Council holds a closed meeting on the GERD
Arab League Council's Foreign Affairs Ministers issue a resolution concerning the GERD
Sudan submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2020/586)
African Union (AU) Bureau of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government holds an extraordinary session on the GERD
UN Security Council holds an open session on the GERD, under the theme Peace and Security in Africa (S/2020/636)
Round of tripartite negotiation meetings between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, under the auspices of the African Union
Ethiopia announces start of the 1st filling of the GERD reservoir
African Union Bureau of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government holds an extraordinary session on the GERD
Round of tripartite negotiation meetings between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, under the auspices of the African Union
Round of tripartite negotiation meetings between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, under the auspices of the African Union
Saudi Arabia submits a letter appealing to the UN Security Council (S/2021/28)
Round of tripartite negotiation meetings between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, under the auspices of the African Union
African Union Chairperson (President Tshilombo Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of the Congo) undertakes a regional tour in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan and proposes a phased approach to a GERD agreement
Egypt submits a letter appealing to the UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/565)
Arab League Council issues a resolution regarding the GERD
Sudan submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/593)
Ethiopia submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/600)
Egypt submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/607)
Ethiopia submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/613)
Ethiopia announces start of the 1st filling of the GERD reservoir
Ethiopia submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/626)
Jordan submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/629)
Sudan submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/630)
Kuwait submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/633)
UN Security Council holds an open session on the GERD, under the theme Peace and Security in Africa (S/PV.8816))
Ethiopia launches the myGERD fundraising platform
Qatar (as chair of the Arab League Council) submits a letter appealing to UN Security Council on the topic of the GERD (S/2021/679)
President of the UN Security Council issues a statement on the GERD