Conversations > Benefits and Impacts

Conversely, throughout this process, Egypt has exercised considerable flexibility, showed limitless goodwill, and demonstrated a genuine political commitment to reach a fair and balanced agreement on the dam. Such an agreement would ensure that Ethiopia achieves it developmental objectives by generating hydropower from the dam, while preventing the infliction of significant harm on downstream riparian States.

Reaching a fair and balanced agreement on the GERD is not only necessary under the applicable rules of international law, but it is also imperative given Egypt’s hydrologically precarious position.

This is a situation that potentially poses a serious threat to peace and security throughout the region. The unilateral filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is slated become the largest hydropower dam in Africa, could cause significant harm to downstream communities. This would jeopardize the water security, food security, and indeed, the very existence of over 100 million Egyptians, who are entirely dependent on the Nile River for their livelihood.

In essence, Ethiopia was expected to simply generate and deliver the water, but never to touch it. This unjust state of affairs cannot continue and must be redressed. To this end, my country commissioned the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is a vital project of enormous potential for cooperation, regional economic integration and mutual benefits for countries in the region, including Egypt itself.

Ethiopia’s energy demand is growing by 19 per cent every year. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is instrumental to our national efforts to address the economic, social and environmental challenges and to meet the Sustainable evelopment Goals and Agenda 2063 of the African Union.

GERD will benefit Ethiopia and the downstream countries in several ways. The Dam will: (i) improve Ethiopia’s energy availability (ii) regulate water flow that will enhance water management for irrigation and other water uses in Egypt and the Sudan (iii) allow enhanced sediment management thereby reducing cost of dredging irrigation canals and increase the life of downstream dams (iv) enable water saving and avoidance of water loss due to seepage and evaporation (v) uplift energy of existing power stations at Roseries, Sennar and Merowe dams in the Sudan (vi) serve as a buffer against climate change-induced extremes, including flooding and drought, and net reduction in Green House Gases emission vii) strengthen regional socio-economic integration (viii) increase regional water storage capacity by 60 billion cubic meters and increases the installed capacity of power by 5150 MW (ix) increase the safety of the High Aswan Dam against major consecutive floods. Hence, GERD is designated as one of the continental projects to strengthen regional integration under the Project for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA).

Currently, Ethiopia’s installed capacity is 4425 MW electric power. The GERD when completed will add 5150 MW installed capacity. Ethiopia must harness its available resource to expand its energy sector to attain energy security. Ethiopia’s economic potential on which the survival of its people hinges may only be unlocked through the supply of sufficient energy to improve agriculture and realize structural economic transformation through industrialization.

The Republic of the Sudan is an important riparian country along the Blue Nile, the country immediately downstream from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and thus stands to be impacted the most by the dam.

It is important to emphasize that for the positive impacts to be realized and for the negative impacts to be mitigated there has to be an agreement in place with Ethiopia on how to fill and operate the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; otherwise, the dam stands to cause substantial risks to Sudan.

Furthermore, Sudan strongly believes that reaching an agreement on the guidelines and rules for the first stage filling, prior to starting the filling of the GERD is extremely necessary and important for all parties, as GERD is a huge dam, built just 15 km from the border, with millions of Sudanese people living downstream along the river banks. Most importantly, GERD is only 100 km upstream of the Roseries Dam which is one-tenth smaller in size. Any unilateral decisions on the timing and rules of filling the GERD will put millions of lives and communities at risk.

The potential positive impacts of the GERD on Sudan emanate from regulating the water flow of the Blue Nile. The regulation of flow will reduce the annual floods during the rainy season and enable Sudan to better manage its irrigation system. It will increase the hydropower generation from existing hydropower plants. In addition, the dam will increase the navigation depth along the Blue Nile and main Nile Rivers.

On the negative side, the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will completely change the flow regime of the Blue Nile by flattening its hydrograph. With this gigantic size, the dam risks causing significant negative impacts on Sudan if not properly designed, constructed, filled and operated. These impacts range from threatening the lives and safety of millions of Sudanese citizens living directly downstream from the dam to the operational safety of the Sudanese dams, the flood plain agricultural system of the country and the socioeconomic and environmental impacts along the Blue Nile and the downstream main Nile River all the way up to the border with Egypt.

While Sudan recognizes the right of Ethiopia to develop its water resources for the benefit and well-being of its citizens, it is vital that Ethiopia does so while ensuring that any potential negative impacts are properly addressed and mitigated in close consultation and coordination with the downstream riparian countries.

For Egypt, a country of more than a 100 million souls that is entirely dependent on the Nile River for its existence, such a situation would be intolerable. Moreover, it is deeply troubling that the GERD is being constructed without having completed the requisite studies on the hydrological and environmental impacts of the dam, and without the necessary guarantees to ensure its structural safety, which threatens over 150 million Sudanese and Egyptian citizens.

Egypt is entirely supportive of the right of Ethiopia, and other Nile riparian states, to development and to enjoy the benefits of the Nile River. Egypt, however, believes that such a right must be exercised equitably and reasonably and in accordance with the applicable rules of international law that, inter alia, protect downstream riparians against significant harm.

Sudan is deeply concerned about Ethiopia decision to start filling the of GERD reservoir in the absence of an agreement. The water of the Sudanese Roseires reservoir, is only 15 km downstream the GERD. With its small size (one tenth of the GERD), unilateral filling of GERD put operation of Roseires, and hence the lives of millions people living downstream at a very high risk.

This means that, if GERD is filled and operated unilaterally, in the absence of a mutually beneficial agreement that protects the lives and livelihood of downstream communities, it can place further stress on an already severely strained hydrological reality and endanger millions of people in both Egypt and the Sudan.

The unilateral operation of this mega-dam could have disastrous socioeconomic effects that will diminish every dimension of the human security of Egyptians, including food security, water security, environmental security and human health. It will also expose millions to greater economic vulnerability, leading to increasing rates of crime and illegal migration. It would reduce water quality, disrupt the riparian ecosystem, damage biodiversity and aggravate the dangers of climate change.

If, God forbid, GERD experiences structural failures or faults, it would place the Sudanese people under unimaginable peril and would expose Egypt to unthinkable hazards. Indeed, our concerns in this regard are not unwarranted. In 2010, the head-race tunnel of the Gibe II dam constructed across the Omo River collapsed within days of the completion of its construction.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam poses a unique opportunity for this part of Africa, where droughts, desertification and economic underdevelopment have befallen generations of people. An agreement on the Renaissance Dam has the potential to transform a region that is home to over 250 million people, expanding economic opportunities through transboundary cooperation and regional integration. Increased food security, improved energy access and expanded agriculture projects are just a few of the transformational benefits that the dam can afford the region.

We have seen first-hand how the Nile is deeply intertwined with the national identities of Egypt, Ethiopia and the Sudan and how its future is of paramount importance to the livelihoods and well-being of their peoples.

The construction of the dam has been under way for almost a decade and is expected to usher in a new era of development, not only for Ethiopia but potentially for the entire subregion as well. It will be the biggest hydroelectric dam on the continent and should therefore be celebrated as a symbol of much-needed development and not become a source of conflict and disagreement.

Failure to reach this agreement, the infliction of harm on the riparian interests of the downstream States and jeopardizing their water security would result in the escalation and heightening of tensions throughout East Africa and the Horn of Africa and would constitute a serious threat to international peace and security.

Failure to reach this agreement, the infliction of harm on the riparian interests of the downstream States and jeopardizing their water security would result in the escalation and heightening of tensions throughout East Africa and the Horn of Africa and would constitute a serious threat to international peace and security. It would place Egypt in a strategically untenable position and would make the survival and livelihood of our peoples subject to the control of an upstream riparian that has demonstrated a lack of the political will to act as a responsible stakeholder and co-riparian.

In particular, 20 million Sudanese citizens, who live downstream of GERD and Sudanese hydropower facilities, including the Roseriers Dam, will be directly impacted and threatened by the second stage of the filling and by the continued unilateral operation of GERD. Similarly, Egypt, which is entirely dependent on the Nile River for its livelihood and for the survival of its 105 million citizens, will be adversely affected by GERD, especially during periods of drought that might coincide with the filling and operation of this dam, which could cause significant water shortages in Egypt.

Reaching an agreement limited to the filling of the GERD would enable Ethiopia to impound 50 billion cubic metres of water and commence the production of hydropower, without instituting any effective mechanisms to mitigate the long-term adverse effects of either the filling or operation of the GERD.

To prevent the infliction of harm on downstream States, it is essential to establish operational rules to mitigate the potentially ravaging impact of droughts and to ensure the safety of downstream hydropower facilities. In the absence of these technical elements, any agreement on the filling of the GERD would be patently unfair, iniquitous, and would imperil the interests of downstream States

Ethiopia, the largest land locked developing country without alternative water resources, has no option but to utilize the waters of Abbay/Blue Nile that constitutes two-third of Ethiopia’s water resources.

Reference Sudan made to Article 35 of the UN Charter is unwarranted. Ethiopia strongly believes that the GERD is a pillar for cooperation. It doesn’t pose threat to the peace and security of the countries in the region. The GERD, is a hydro-electric dam, that represents the most minimal aspect of Ethiopia’s legitimate exercise of its rights as a riparian state and source of eighty six percent of the waters of the Nile. By no stretch can a hydroelectric dam or a technical difference on the utilization of a transboundary river warrant the involvement of the UNSC. The negotiation pertaining to the first filling and annual operation of the GERD is one of many and continuing global water issues the resolution of which is the exclusive domain of the riparian states.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam benefits the Sudan more than any other riparian country. To borrow the statement of Sudanese officials, the dam is for the Sudan what the High Aswan Dam is for Egypt. Regulated flow of the Nile will allow the Sudan to produce more food and generate more electricity. It will also save the lives and property that the Sudan keeps losing to excessive and perennial flooding. Cognizant of the benefits the Sudan will acquire, the people and governments of the Sudan have supported the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project from its inception. More recently, the Sudan has changed course for reasons known only to them. In this regard, it is worth noting that Egypt and the Sudan, per the 1959 agreement, are under obligation to advance a common position.

It is appropriate to assert that the predicament described above is in direct contravention of the international water law principles of cooperation and causing no significant harm, as the mitigation measures undertaken by Sudan owing to Ethiopia’s non-cooperation have taken a substantial economic and social toll.

Shared watercourse can also be the foundation of cooperation, well-planned hydraulic infrastructures on a shared river course can be a source of enhanced collaboration and need not be a zero-sum game. With integrated planning, damaging seasonal inundations can be prevented; energy can be traded; water storage can be optimized; and benefits can materialize both in terms of development and in terms of water optimization.

We fully understand the political and socioeconomic significance of this hydropower project, the largest on the African continent, for the millions of people living in Ethiopia, a country that is experiencing a major electricity shortage. At the same time, we note the legitimate concerns expressed by Egypt and the Sudan regarding the possible negative effects the operation of the dam could have, in the absence of an agreement, on the inhabitants of those countries during dry years.

China believes that, through joint efforts, the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) can become a tripartite development project to enhance mutual trust and win-win cooperation.

Therefore, Ethiopia’s attempt to disrupt the Sudan’s agricultural capabilities by imposing its hegemony in a unilateral manner with regard to the filling and operation of the GERD is extremely dangerous and threatens our promising emerging agricultural renaissance and the Sudan’s widespread strategic agricultural projects.